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Time Series Analysis On The Total Number Of Patients Treated For Malaria Fever
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CHAPTER ONE
1.0INTRODUCTION
The term time series refers to one the
quantitative method used in determination pattern in data collected
over time e.g weekly monthly, quarterly or yearly.
Time service is
the statistic tool or methodology that can be used to transform past
experience to predict future event which would enable the researcher or
organization to plan.
It gives information about how the particular
case of study has been behaving in the past and present and such
information can be used in prediction The number of people treated for
malaria fever at the otan Ayegbaju management hospital. Comprehensive
health centre otan. We are going to seen how change occur over mouths in
each year in the occurrence of the disease in the hospital. As a
result of this, we will be able to know certain factor responsible for
increase or decrease in the rate of infection of the disease over the
period of time.
Record of time series data can be made in the following ways:-
A.
THROUGH CUMULATIVE FIGURES:- these represent value of input through the
quarter. We must always bear in mind the different when handling time
series data and as certain which particular type we are dealing with in
every case.
B. CUMULATIVE TYPE ADDED COMPILATION:- some cases when
an added compilation introduced for the cumulative type of data the
figure which are related to month of the year and not the total for
month. further more the characteristic movement, seasonal variation
Irregular variation in the analysis of time series, we have two types of
model are generally accepted as good approximation of the true data
association among the component of observed data, they are the most
commonly assumed relationship between time series and its components.
These are additive model and Multiplicative mode. All time series
contain at least on of four of its components. These components are:-
1. Long term trend
2. Seasonal variation
3. Cyclical variation
4. Irregular or random variation value
IRREGULAR OR RANDOM COMPONENT
This venation cannot BE attributed to any of three previously discussed component in the sense that is unpredictable.
Irregulars flotation can be cause by many factor such as war, flood
drought and other human as action. Two type of irregular variation may
exit in a time series viz. minor and major irregularities minor
irregularities show up as serivtooth like pattern are under the long
term trend. These irregularited are in organization long term operation:
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ABSRACT - [ Total Page(s): 1 ]This project work reveled the rate at which people are infected with malaria the least square method used for analysis showed that people are infected with malaria irrespective of the time and seasons of a successive year,There is no noticeable direction as regarding the number of patient treated for malaria over time.Also, the analysis from autoregressive moving average report shows that both autoregressive and moving average of order four were both appropriate while the report from autocorrela ... Continue reading---
